Unless you live in China, you can’t escape the near constant reporting on the upheaval in the Middle East and north Africa over the past two months. The jasmine revolution continues to inspire demonstrations, riots and outright rebellion from the Persian Gulf to the Atlantic. We may be witnessing a world-changing event on par with the various color revolutions in eastern Europe of barely a generation ago. It is easy for the media and the casual observer to get swept up in the belief that when the people truly want change, change is inevitable. Numerous articles in such high-thinking publications as the Economist, Wall Street Journal, and New York Times tell us that regardless of short-term stability we should always be pro-democracy, or else we end up on the wrong side of such history!
No one can deny the power of an outraged populous, and current events serve only to remind us of that. The theory that greater access to communication and information help break authoritarian rule suggest that as xerox and personal computers were to the Soviets, so twitter and facebook are to the Arab autocrats. But that is hardly the end of the story.
People have continually risen up against oppressive regimes. Prague Spring, Tienamen Square, and the Green Revolution in Tehran are all examples of people power trying to burst the dam but ultimately falling short. All three of these examples were quashed by a no-nonsense military crackdown. As with all things political, one only has to look back to the Roman Republic crisis to see that a disrupted population can be brought to heel with the use of a disciplined military and its unflinching commander. For all his craziness, Qaddafi seems to have understood this fact and despite near-universal disgust may yet cling to power. Even civilized Bahrain toys with more forceful tactics as it inches closer to instability.
So while the west’s role in propping up dictators may be outdated, instead of backing various pro-democracy groups we should instead put our focus on creating tighter bonds with nations’ armies . In the chaos of a new order, revolutionaries can get shut out of the very government they helped make possible in favor of stronger figures; but those with the biggest guns always seem to find a seat at the table. Such influence may be enough to convince leaders not to let loose the dogs of war. Slow, steady influence may even help convince them that their fate is tied with the citizens-at-large. While some demonstrations have overcome armed response (Kyrgyzstan, the Bolsheviks, even the American Revolution), few regimes have stayed in power when the army takes itself out of the equation.
Media type: Online news
Title: Thousands protest in Bahrain
Read it at: Thousands protest in Bahrain – Middle East – Al Jazeera English